Uncle SAM’s Changing Trajectory: Making America Great Again!

Calling an elected democracy a throne and giving it a monarchical connotation is because it is like a personal victory for Trump, sweeping all the swing states and improving his vote share by receiving the highest number of votes in the history of the Republican Party.

He led the Republican Party to achieve a Senate majority of 53-47 that surpassed initial expectations, and while the house results seemed to offer mixed results as Republicans are poised to hold a 220-215 majority, narrower than last time. These gains are more than incremental; indeed, they may signal a new era in American politics.

Electoral Landscape

The republican campaign led by Trump benefited greatly from playing to multiple voter segments, especially among Latino voters and those from rural areas, who usually support Democratic candidates. His appeal and success with these groups is evidently clear in how he won in states like Florida, including the Miami Dade County, by almost 12 points. This marked the first republican victory there in 36 years. This shift among Latino voters is significant. Exit polls for CNN showed that support for Trump among Latino men jumped significantly compared to 2020. Latino men shifted from a 23-point support for Biden in 2020 to a 12-point margin for Trump in 2024. This is part of a bigger trend of Latino voters becoming more aligned with Republicans.

In suburban areas, which have now become key battlegrounds that decide elections, Trump's +4 margin shows a significant shift in support compared to previous elections. This shows a reversal from past elections where Democrats had a strong advantage. The people living in these areas are increasing and becoming more diverse, so they are a crucial factor in determining how well a president does. His victory here suggests a change in how people usually vote.

Challenges for Democrats

From the very beginning of Harris’s campaign, there were serious obstacles that stood in her way. Being the vice president alongside the president whose approval ratings dropped dramatically during his first year and never got back on track, she was the one being held accountable for a lot of the public’s anger at his handling of crucial issues such as inflation and immigration. The situation worsened when Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw came as a sudden surprise and meant that Harris must deal with the aftermath, leaving no other solution.

His last-minute decision limited the time that she could have spent sharpening her arguments during the primaries and cut down the time she was able to talk to the voters. Even though these hurdles existed, she tried to quickly ensure the party’s coherence and took advantage of the already existing Biden’s campaign infrastructure rather than starting over completely. Nevertheless, she was incapable of completely neutralising the hindrances caused by the timing of Biden’s departure. The result was very alarming for the Democratic Party. Vice President Kamala Harris, to whom the Democratic effort was entrusted by the president after his abdication, was not able to attract what is considered essential voter segments. She failed in winning over suburban women and minority communities, two important segments in the electorate. She did even worse with Black voters and the urban areas than Biden had done in 2020.

Harris’ vote count was lower than Biden’s, especially in the big cities like Detroit and Phoenix, where she was not able to seize the moment. The reason for this could/may be the voters’ dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s policies and the economic situation that was getting worse and hitting the voters’ minds. The Democratic coalition looks like it is showing signs of rift since the places that were their strong supporters have been pulled towards Trump.

A New Era in Politics

Trump’s success is not only a victory of a political election; it is like a hint at a radical new future in the USA’s politics, as observed through the high-level polarization and changing constituencies. His campaign rhetoric struck a strong chord with the low-spirited voters from all ethnic groups with his focus on topics of economic stability, immigration, and out-of-control crime that many voters expressed their concern about. Senate Republican gain of seats should put Trump in checkmates with his legislature without much serious opposition from the Democrats who are against it. This seems extremely probable and would cause huge movements in US foreign policy and even the banning of some of them.

Now that Trump is the United States’ President again, various hypotheses circulate as to how U.S. foreign policy might be redefined. According to him, the administration will be more aggressive towards trade and the world in general, especially in the way it treats China. Adding or increasing tariffs can trigger tension in the already strained relationships and affect the world markets. Important rising states hailed Trump’s win; for instance, leaders of Argentina and Indonesia voiced their support. This is the opposite of the mixed reactions that were noticed during the Biden victory in 2020. On the other side of the coin, Trump’s trade restrictions will possibly lead to economic problems to exports coming from Mexico and some European countries to the U.S.

Economic Outlook

The economic side effects of a Trump presidency are multifaceted. One of the advantages seen from the president’s backers is development-focused policies that help the economy grow fast. The other side is price hikes and trade issues. Promulgation on customs duty of imports may bring about a surge in local prices and aggravated international ties. “The Federal Reserve could then act by adjusting the interest rates to cope with the booming and busting business sentiment spurred by Trump’s trade policies.” Such actions could affect global markets greatly, especially for nations that are based in trade with the U.S.

Effects on the future prospects of India:

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency could have far-reaching economic and geopolitical implications for India. Here are the main effects that are expected from his second term:

Economic Implications:

1. Tariffs and Trade: Trump has a track record of imposing tariffs, especially on products imported from China. He is expected to apply similar measures to Indian goods as well, possibly raising tariffs on textiles, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles. As a result, Indian exports could become less competitive in the U.S. market and dent revenue streams for Indian manufacturers.
2. Visa Restrictions: The H-1B visa program, which is very important for India’s information technology industry, can come under more stricter regulations under Trump. This will play a very crucial part in making it difficult for Indian tech companies to hire the best of workers in the U.S., resulting in higher operational costs and, moreover, reduced competitiveness as well.
3. Currency Volatility: The persistent strength of the U.S. dollar, resulting from Trump policies, would result in a weaker Indian rupee, and consequently, higher import prices, including that of oil, will push inflation in India upwards. As a result, the rupee will most likely continue on the path of depreciation, and its impact will be experienced in the Indian fiscal health, say analysts.
4. Investment opportunities: Indeed, for all the challenges it would bring, Donald Trump’s protectionist policies will force MNCs to look at India as a manufacturing alternative. Which will result in disillusion from the use of Chinese supply chains. This program also goes in line with the vision of “Atmanirbhar Bharat” that India should bolster local manufacturing of goods.

Geopolitical Impacts:

1. Strengthening the India-US Relationship: Many experts and observers expect and believe that Trump would maintain the close connections with India that were established during his previous administration, particularly in the fields of cooperation and military. In the time of growing tensions with China, his administration may defend India’s strategic independence and supply cutting-edge military technologies.
2. Regional Stability in Asia: Under Trump’s leadership, there could be a renewed focus on curbing China’s influence in Asia, as the Chinese attitude in the region is itself a threat to the sovereignty of various nations. This is in line with India’s interests in maintaining stability and security in the region, especially with regard to border disputes.
3. Climate policy change: Trump’s probable change in laws or regulations relating to the environment will affect global climate action and may create problems or conflict with India’s obligations under international agreements such as the Paris Agreement.
4. Defense cooperation: Defense cooperation between the United States and India should be strengthened, with enhanced technology exchanges and joint military exercises designed to strengthen India’s capabilities to address regional threats, especially China’s actions.

Trump’s presidency offers a complex array of opportunities and challenges for India. While the potential for increased tariffs and visa limitations could impact trade and the IT industry, there are also prospects for growth as global supply chains may shift in favor of Indian manufacturing. Also as India navigates these intricate dynamics, it will be essential to strategically align with the U.S. on defense and regional security to uphold its standing in a progressively multipolar global landscape.

The election of Donald Trump as president significantly alters the political environment in the United States. His capacity to attract support from a wide range of demographics indicates a notable transformation in voter behaviour that may reshape party dynamics in the future. As he gears up for a second term, the focus remains on his policy direction—both at home and abroad—prompting extensive political discussions. While Democrats could face a lot of political problems as they contend with a divided coalition and waning support from crucial voter groups, Trump’s administration is set to advance a bold agenda that resonates with his populist base and addresses their concerns. As America embarks on this new phase under Trump’s leadership, the effects on governance, social unity, and international relations will be closely monitored by both supporters and critics.

Aryanshu Singh Sengar is a student pursuing B.A. LL.B. (Hons.) from Jamia Millia Islamia.

Edited By: Sidra Aman

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of The Jamia Review or its members.